{"id":15285,"date":"2023-08-01T07:47:00","date_gmt":"2023-08-01T15:47:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.scotthyoung.com\/blog\/?p=15285"},"modified":"2023-11-10T06:00:06","modified_gmt":"2023-11-10T14:00:06","slug":"not-more-popular","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.scotthyoung.com\/blog\/2023\/08\/01\/not-more-popular\/","title":{"rendered":"Why I&#8217;m Not More Popular"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Recently, when I was a guest on a podcast, the host asked me why <a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Ultralearning-Master-Outsmart-Competition-Accelerate\/dp\/006285268X\/\">my book<\/a> wasn\u2019t more popular. She thought it belonged in the same class as mega-bestsellers like <a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Atomic-Habits-Proven-Build-Break\/dp\/0735211299\/ref=sr_1_1?crid=2Y6PQC6WUTD4Y&amp;keywords=atomic+habits&amp;qid=1656002761&amp;sprefix=atomic+hab%2Caps%2C155&amp;sr=8-1\">Atomic Habits<\/a> or <a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.ca\/Deep-Work-Focused-Success-Distracted\/dp\/1455586692\">Deep Work<\/a>, and was surprised it wasn\u2019t in the same league for popularity.<\/p>\n<p>While it\u2019s deeply flattering to be told your work is underrated, I think some people\u2019s surprise that a moderately-popular thing isn\u2019t super popular stems from a cognitive illusion.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Why Bestsellers Seem Common<\/h2>\n<div class=\"inline-podcast\">\n<small>Listen to this article<\/small><br \/>\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" width=\"100%\" height=\"20\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"no\" allow=\"autoplay\" src=\"https:\/\/w.soundcloud.com\/player\/?url=https%3A\/\/api.soundcloud.com\/tracks\/1660741509%3Fsecret_token%3Ds-GxnEw5eVw5r&#038;color=%23219895&#038;inverse=false&#038;auto_play=false&#038;show_user=true\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<p>Try to imagine every book you\u2019ve ever read, seen or heard about. How many books would that be?<\/p>\n<p>Maybe 1000?<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s probably not more than 10,000 unless you\u2019re an avid bibliophile or work in publishing.<\/p>\n<p>Now try to guess how many books are actually written. For published books, estimates range from 500,000 to one million books are published every year. Including self-published books, and it\u2019s closer to four million. The Library of Congress has 32 million cataloged books, which is an undercount of every book ever written.<\/p>\n<p>That means every book you\u2019ve heard about, let alone read, makes up less than 0.00003% of all the books that exist!<\/p>\n<p>Furthermore, the books you\u2019ve heard about are not a randomly-selected sample. The likelihood you\u2019ve heard of a book corresponds fairly closely with its popularity in the general marketplace. The average traditionally-published book typically sells a few thousand copies in its lifetime. In contrast, mega-bestsellers sell tens of millions.<\/p>\n<p>Thus the picture the average reader gets of the market looks like this:<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"512\" src=\"https:\/\/www.scotthyoung.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/Why-Im-Not-More-Popular2--1024x512.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-15286\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.scotthyoung.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/Why-Im-Not-More-Popular2--1024x512.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.scotthyoung.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/Why-Im-Not-More-Popular2--300x150.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.scotthyoung.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/Why-Im-Not-More-Popular2--768x384.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.scotthyoung.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/Why-Im-Not-More-Popular2--1536x768.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.scotthyoung.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/Why-Im-Not-More-Popular2-.jpg 1600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n<p>But the reality of publishing is actually this:<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"512\" src=\"https:\/\/www.scotthyoung.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/Why-Im-Not-More-Popular3--1024x512.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-15287\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.scotthyoung.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/Why-Im-Not-More-Popular3--1024x512.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.scotthyoung.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/Why-Im-Not-More-Popular3--300x150.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.scotthyoung.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/Why-Im-Not-More-Popular3--768x384.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.scotthyoung.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/Why-Im-Not-More-Popular3--1536x768.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.scotthyoung.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/Why-Im-Not-More-Popular3-.jpg 1600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n<p>The handful of people who (ever-so-kindly) think I\u2019m underrated are probably thinking of a dozen or so popular books of the same genre. Owing to the biases mentioned above, these examples are disproportionately drawn from the pool of enormously successful books. They notice that my book is less successful than that elite cohort and find it surprising.<\/p>\n<p>These people are missing the hundreds of thousands of books similar to mine in quality (or better!) that they\u2019ve never heard of because they aren\u2019t bestsellers!<\/p>\n<p>This analysis applies to any kind of creative work. We watch famous YouTubers with millions of subscribers and ignore the vast majority who have less than a thousand. We hear about research done by elite scientists from Harvard and MIT, but not work by ordinary academics. Music, movies, journalism, athletics and countless other fields suffer from the same distortion.<\/p>\n<p>I\u2019m intensely grateful to have achieved a place where people buy my book and I get invited to be on podcasts. Most people don\u2019t get this much, even those whose work deserves it.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What About Quality? Don&#8217;t Better Books Sell More?<\/h2>\n<p>Of course, books that become bestsellers aren\u2019t entirely random. I&#8217;ve been envious of James Clear\u2019s writing ability since before he wrote <em>Atomic Habits<\/em>, so it wasn\u2019t surprising to me when his book became a major hit. He\u2019s a thoughtful and engaging writer.<\/p>\n<p>While there are snobs who argue that a book\u2019s popularity is a sign of <em>low<\/em> quality, I think this take reflects particular tastes rather than describing a general feature of the mass market.<span id='easy-footnote-1-15285' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/www.scotthyoung.com\/blog\/2023\/08\/01\/not-more-popular\/#easy-footnote-bottom-1-15285' title='For instance, despite the stereotype, many academic books are well-written and fascinating. They also require a much more serious and informed reader to appreciate, which limits the potential audience. A similar argument could be made about the popularity James Patterson\u2019s novels vs. highbrow literature.'><sup>1<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p>However, even if you try to argue that popularity is perfectly correlated with underlying writing quality, the two scales differ by orders of magnitude.<\/p>\n<p>If writing quality exists on a scale from 1 to 100, book sales range from zero to tens of millions.<span id='easy-footnote-2-15285' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/www.scotthyoung.com\/blog\/2023\/08\/01\/not-more-popular\/#easy-footnote-bottom-2-15285' title='The test of this would be to ask people to rate books on a scale before knowing whether they are mega-bestsellers. As a thought experiment, it seems obvious to me that the best-selling books would generally rank a bit higher on average. Still, there would probably be substantial overlap in the ratings of mega-bestsellers and good-but-not-famous books.'><sup>2<\/sup><\/a><\/span>Thus, even in a world where writing quality perfectly predicts sales, it is still unfair. Those who are ever-so-slightly better can reap hundreds or thousands of times the rewards.<\/p>\n<p>Almost no one believes that a book\u2019s quality is perfectly predictive of its success. Books succeed in part because of quality, but also because of random factors that neither the author nor an outside observer could easily predict. Those who become phenomenal bestsellers are often just as surprised as anyone that their book has taken off.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What Level of Success Should You Expect?<\/h2>\n<p>At its heart, this suggests a rather pessimistic downgrading of our ability to succeed in fields like book publishing. If we\u2019re greatly exaggerating the proportion of books that become bestsellers, we\u2019re implicitly overestimating our odds of success.<\/p>\n<p>I think there is some truth to this.<\/p>\n<p>Success at an extreme level is usually the overlap of many competing factors, only some of which are in your control. If your personal definition of success or happiness depends on being in a rarefied elite, this analysis should chasten you to the reality of that goal.<\/p>\n<p>Even if you\u2019re pursuing more modest success, however, thinking this way can help you do better. When success is much rarer than you think, you need to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.scotthyoung.com\/blog\/2020\/06\/15\/narrow-success\/\">pay close attention to what works<\/a>, work hard to master the fundamental skills of your craft, and ensure you\u2019re committed to making it work.<\/p>\n<p>Having achieved modest popularity, I\u2019m thankful for everyone who enjoys my work. Whether you think my work is underrated or overrated, I\u2019m endlessly grateful for the opportunity to write about things I find interesting for a living.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>An analysis into a prevalent cognitive illusion about the nature of success in many fields.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-15285","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-personal-development","7":"entry"},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - 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