{"id":17038,"date":"2025-02-18T07:39:27","date_gmt":"2025-02-18T15:39:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.scotthyoung.com\/blog\/?p=17038"},"modified":"2025-02-18T08:46:04","modified_gmt":"2025-02-18T16:46:04","slug":"trust-the-experts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.scotthyoung.com\/blog\/2025\/02\/18\/trust-the-experts\/","title":{"rendered":"Just Trust the Experts"},"content":{"rendered":"

Last month, I shared the reading list<\/a> from my month-long effort to better understand nutrition. After reading about a dozen books (including two textbooks), I frankly admit there\u2019s a lot I still don\u2019t know. And also, I feel like I gained a decent understanding of the current mainstream scientific perspective.<\/p>\n

Predictably, and disappointingly, a lot of the replies I got to that article looked something like this:<\/p>\n

\n

\u201cBut have you read so-and-so? They wrote a book explaining why the experts are all wrong!\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

It\u2019s predictable because it\u2019s easy to see how ideology, misinformation, and the complexity and uncertainty of doing fundamental science make nutrition one of the more contentious fields out there.<\/p>\n

However, it\u2019s also disappointing because none of the readers I spoke with seemed to disagree with me that their favored stance wasn\u2019t reflected in the dominant scientific perspective\u2014they simply thought the dominant scientific perspective was wrong.<\/p>\n

This, to me, reflects a more fundamental disagreement I have with those readers\u2014not one of nutritional advice<\/span>1<\/sup><\/a><\/span> but of how we should form beliefs in the first place.<\/p>\n

My fundamental worldview is that:<\/p>\n

\n

If you want to have more true beliefs, you should simply believe the experts who study the topic, most of the time.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

In short, if you want to have an accurate worldview, you should avoid being a contrarian almost all of the time and simply accept whatever people who have studied a topic extensively think about it.<\/p>\n

Why We Should Believe Experts<\/h2>\n

The rationale for defaulting to believing experts in almost all cases is simple:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. An expert is, by definition, a smart person who knows a lot about a topic.<\/li>\n
  2. The typical expert has more true opinions than the typical non-expert because they have more knowledge with which to form an opinion.<\/li>\n
  3. The most common expert opinion is even more accurate than the typical expert. This is because each expert has a different subset of all available knowledge on a topic, so the average view is a better \u201cbest guess\u201d than any individual\u2019s opinion.<\/li>\n
  4. The majority expert opinion may be wrong. But contrarian opinions are even more likely to be wrong. The value of this perspective is probabilistic: expert consensus will fail sometimes, but it fails less often than the contrarian alternative. It is therefore a strong default presumption to hold.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n
    \n
    \"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

    I forget exactly where I first heard this argument, but I find the logic difficult to reject. Experts are more accurate than non-experts. The expert consensus<\/span>2<\/sup><\/a><\/span> is more accurate than any particular expert.<\/p>\n

    Despite the logic of this argument, the advice simply to believe the dominant scientific viewpoint on an issue has a lot of dissenters. Indeed, even though we could easily recognize its accuracy, if a viewpoint doesn\u2019t \u201cfeel\u201d right, isn\u2019t it kind of brainless to just accept whatever some group of experts tells us to think? Shouldn\u2019t you make up your own mind and come to your own conclusions?<\/p>\n

    Objections to Simply Trusting Expertise<\/h2>\n

    There are many objections to the anti-contrarian epistemology I\u2019m supporting here, and I\u2019d like to review a few of them. While I do think some of these arguments can be legitimate, they need be invoked carefully. Successful contrarianism is like successful gambling\u2014possible in theory, but it frequently leads to losing your shirt.<\/p>\n

    1. \u201cExperts ignore X.\u201d<\/h3>\n

    The most common cry of the skeptic is that the experts ignore valuable evidence. In this view, because the expert opinion fails to sample some part of the useful knowledge needed to form an opinion, the conclusions aren\u2019t to be trusted.<\/p>\n

    \n
    \"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

    This is undoubtedly true, but I would argue it is a virtue rather than a vice. A lot of seeming evidence isn\u2019t reliable for forming conclusions, and simpler theories often lead to better explanations than ones that try to account for everything.<\/p>\n

    A physicist may assume an object is a perfectly rigid cube lying on a frictionless plane. A nutritionist may simplify foods into a collection of chemicals. An economist may assume people behave as rational utility-maximizing agents.<\/p>\n

    The omissions made by these models are not haphazard\u2014experts themselves debate about which factors are important. Models and theories must necessarily be simpler than reality; a map as large as the territory it describes would be useless.<\/p>\n

    Claiming that a body of expertise is wrong because it systematically ignores some factor is simply a restatement of the contrarian claim that \u201cfactor X is important, but mainstream expert opinion says it isn\u2019t.\u201d In other words, this argument doesn\u2019t work on its own. You\u2019d need an additional explanation for why<\/em> experts ignore X, even though it is evidently important.<\/p>\n

    2. \u201cExperts are biased.\u201d<\/h3>\n

    Although my rationale for believing experts is based on the idea that experts are simply smart people who know a lot about a topic, that isn\u2019t quite accurate. In reality, experts are social groups that carefully draw boundaries between members and non-members.<\/p>\n

    This social reality influences expertise, and anyone who has spent time with experts can attest to how much social factors influence which beliefs take root<\/a> in expert communities.<\/p>\n

    If researchers are ideologically committed to a particular position, or they find certain conclusions of their research unpalatable for non-epistemic reasons, or even if they are disproportionately drawn from a group that is likely to hold strong prior beliefs, these can all be reasons to question expert conclusions.<\/p>\n

    \n
    \"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

    \u2028As an example, I find it difficult to wholeheartedly accept a lot of the science done by meditation or psychedelic researchers. These fields have a selection effect where many of the researchers begin with strong beliefs that those things ought to work, so there\u2019s a greater chance of finding false positive effects for the usual reasons science can go wrong.<\/span>3<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

    However, while bias is real and potentially a ground for legitimate contrarianism, we must also turn the mirror on ourselves. We, too, have biases that predispose us to be favorable to some perspectives rather than others. Casually discarding expert opinion because of bias is the pot calling the kettle black. If you\u2019re going to dismiss the majority opinion of a field because of bias, you need strong evidence that you yourself are more likely to be impartial\u2014a high bar that few contrarians can surmount.<\/p>\n

    3. \u201cThose experts are fake.\u201d<\/h3>\n

    Perhaps the biggest indictment of a field is simply to decry that the brand of expertise they practice is fake. If the knowledge the field has amassed is utter garbage, then there\u2019s no real reason for believing any of the claims it makes.<\/p>\n

    This claim is easiest to see with the benefit of hindsight. Of course<\/em> scholastics who believed in Aristotle\u2019s four-elements theory of physics were fake. Of course<\/em> doctors who used blood letting and leeches as cure-alls were fake. Of course<\/em> alchemists, astrologers and fortune-tellers are fake. We see those fields, and the knowledge they accumulated, as largely worthless enterprises today\u2014the average person would have been better off staying at home than visiting a doctor who would likely bleed them to death for a minor ailment.<\/p>\n

    \n
    \"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

    Of course, the idea that economics, theoretical physics, finance, nutrition, cognitive science or social psychology are fake fields with fake expertise is popular among contrarians of all stripes. After all, if you can reject the legitimacy of experts, you can discount their consensus opinions wholesale.<\/p>\n

    I\u2019m sympathetic to this claim. Like most people, I have my preferences for evidence and my hierarchy of fields I\u2019m willing to believe more strongly\u2014and those I\u2019m more likely to roll my eyes at.<\/p>\n

    But, the argument for believing specific claims<\/em> of expert opinion extends to believing in specific fields<\/em> of expertise. Intellectual life doesn\u2019t exist in a vacuum. Different groups of experts all vie for supremacy on most topics\u2014there are many questions that are simultaneously tackled by social psychologists, economists, anthropologists and humanities scholars. If an intellectual argument clearly \u201cwins\u201d in the court of opinion among intelligent observers, then that field gets a larger share of the intellectual marketplace and the less-successful intellectual group withers.<\/p>\n

    Indeed, the reason it’s easier to point to past groups of experts as being clearly fake is because their paradigms did not survive the intellectual evolutionary process. Alchemy was outcompeted by chemistry. Aristotle\u2019s theory was outcompeted by Newton\u2019s. Modern evidence-based medicine outcompeted bloodletting and folk remedies.<\/p>\n

    In short, the rationale for accepting the legitimacy of a field are the same as the rationales for accepting a specific claim made within a field: If there were a better, more intellectually satisfying approach, the likelihood is that the better approach would dominate the current paradigm\u2014from another community of experts if not from within.<\/p>\n

    4. \u201cTrusting experts is intellectually lazy. You should review the evidence and come to your own conclusions.\u201d<\/h3>\n

    A final objection doesn\u2019t rest on the weakness of expert opinion, rather on the supposed intellectual vice that simply trusting experts creates. In this view, being the kind of person who follows along with the mainstream consensus is cowardly and lazy: you should bravely think for yourself\u2014even if you sometimes get the wrong answer.<\/p>\n

    But this, to me, is a fundamental misconception. Trusting expertise is not an intellectually simple task. It takes enormous work to bring your worldview even partly in line with what experts think. Deep understanding requires you to review much of the knowledge that experts possess\u2014hardly a task for the intellectually lazy.<\/p>\n

    \n
    \"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

    Instead, it\u2019s typically the reflexive contrarians who are intellectually lazy. They would prefer to read one flashy book that supports a worldview they are already predisposed to believe rather than wade through multiple dense textbooks that slowly build the consensus perspective.<\/p>\n

    Simply parroting the conclusions of experts is not enough. To really understand an expert conclusion, you need to develop for yourself the mental models used to generate it. That\u2019s hard work. It\u2019s why getting an advanced degree in a field takes so long\u2014mastering the tools and models needed to accurately simulate the expert opinion in a wide range of scenarios within a single field takes years, and that must happen before the student can do their own meaningful work in that field.<\/p>\n

    Truly smart contrarianism not only has to articulate an opposing view, but provide a deep explanation for why that viewpoint is not widely accepted by other smart people with similar knowledge. Few experts in a given field ever reach this position, never mind casual readers commenting on a topic outside of their specialty.<\/p>\n

    Some Final, Moderating Factors<\/h2>\n

    My original advice was:<\/p>\n

    If you want to have more true beliefs, you should simply believe the experts who study the topic, most of the time.<\/strong><\/p>\n

    I would add a few moderating factors to that generalization:<\/p>\n

    1. Experts can tell you what to believe\u2014not how strongly to believe it.\u2028<\/h3>\n

    The quality of evidence used to form expert beliefs varies widely. Despite this, experts, on the whole, are highly confident of their own opinions. Since making decisions in life depends on not only what the \u201cbest guess\u201d beliefs are, but how likely they are to be correct, this lack of calibration is a problem for my simple model of trusting experts.<\/p>\n

    \n
    \"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

    I have much more faith in basic physics than basic nutrition, for instance. I would be extremely surprised if the principles of quantum mechanics turned out to be wrong, but it wouldn\u2019t shock me if nutritional researchers flip-flopped on the link between saturated fat and heart disease<\/a>.<\/p>\n

    This lack of confidence calibration means that while it\u2019s not usually justified to say, \u201cthe experts are all wrong, you should believe X instead,\u201d it’s not always incorrect to say, \u201cthe experts are wrong, you shouldn\u2019t have any<\/em> opinion on X.\u201d Skepticism of the expert view in shaky fields is consistent with the position I\u2019m advocating for, even if true skepticism (rather than ardent belief in even more dubious propositions) is quite rare.<\/p>\n

    2. If your goal isn\u2019t to maximize true beliefs, contrarianism can be justified.<\/h3>\n

    Somewhat ironically, the individual experts aren\u2019t necessarily incentivized to maximize the truth value of their beliefs. Expert consensus is a kind of smudgy, bland version of a particular worldview; it\u2019s what\u2019s left after averaging out of all sorts of unique or unusual perspectives.<\/p>\n

    \n
    \"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

    In contrast, a scientist or pundit aims not just to be right about the stuff everyone already agrees on, but to be surprisingly<\/em> correct\u2014to hold a belief that later turns out to be perceived as more plausible, thus changing the consensus viewpoint.<\/p>\n

    Indeed, this may even be a good thing. An intellectual environment where all experts followed my \u201cjust trust the experts\u201d maxim would result in excessive conformity of opinion, making bias more likely. We should want to live in a world where experts don\u2019t agree, and instead debate each other, as this raises the average quality of their opinions.<\/span>4<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

    An analogy is investing. The average investor is better off putting their money in a low-cost index fund rather than picking stocks. Most investors (including professionals) fail to beat the market consistently. And yet, we do want at least some amount of (mostly deluded) contrarians trying to actively beat the market, since it is this very activity that determines values in the market.<\/p>\n

    Final Thoughts<\/h2>\n

    While I first heard this argument for believing expertise ages ago, I don\u2019t think its logic alone is what made me attempt to follow it more rigorously in my life.<\/p>\n

    Instead, it\u2019s the experience of having been persuaded by a contrarian expert, being fully convinced and, years later, being dissuaded from those original views as I encountered more evidence. And unlike the boy who touched the fire, it took being burned more than a few times before I developed the reflex.<\/p>\n

    While I doubt this argument will bring any dyed-in-the-wool contrarians or conspiracy theorists to my worldview, I do hope it will nudge a few people into giving more weight to the dominant expert perspective, and a bit less weight to the voices of persuasive-sounding contrarians.<\/p>\n

    Because, ultimately, having true beliefs does matter. Your beliefs inform how you invest, eat, build your career, raise your kids and take care of your health. And if your fundamental worldview isn\u2019t optimized for gathering true beliefs, you\u2019re bound to make mistakes.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Last month, I shared the reading list from my month-long effort to better understand nutrition. After reading about a dozen books (including two textbooks), I frankly admit there\u2019s a lot I still don\u2019t know. And also, I feel like I gained a decent understanding of the current mainstream scientific perspective. Predictably, and disappointingly, a lot […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-17038","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-personal-development","7":"entry"},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nJust Trust the Experts - Scott H Young<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.scotthyoung.com\/blog\/2025\/02\/18\/trust-the-experts\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Just Trust the Experts - Scott H Young\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Last month, I shared the reading list from my month-long effort to better understand nutrition. 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