{"id":2890,"date":"2013-07-31T16:29:44","date_gmt":"2013-07-31T23:29:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.scotthyoung.com\/blog\/?p=2890"},"modified":"2018-04-03T08:43:23","modified_gmt":"2018-04-03T15:43:23","slug":"watch-out-for-good-ideas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.scotthyoung.com\/blog\/2013\/07\/31\/watch-out-for-good-ideas\/","title":{"rendered":"Watch Out for &#8220;Good&#8221; Ideas"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Whenever I hear unanimous opinion a new idea or plan I have is &#8220;good&#8221;, I get suspicious.<\/p>\n<p>Until recently, however, I couldn\u2019t articulate the cause of that suspicion. After all, if most people think an idea is good, shouldn\u2019t that give me more confidence in it, not less?<\/p>\n<p>I think I\u2019ve figured out the trigger for my mistrust. Normally when I start a new project, I get mixed reactions. Some people think its great, others think it\u2019s a waste of time and many other people either don\u2019t care or don\u2019t understand. This happens a lot.<\/p>\n<p>I heard it when I started an online business. \u201cThat\u2019s not a real job.\u201d \u201cWho\u2019s going to pay you?\u201d \u201cThat sounds fake.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>I heard it when I wanted to move to France. \u201cBut you don\u2019t speak French&#8230;\u201d \u201cWon\u2019t that be too expensive?\u201d \u201cThe French aren\u2019t friendly, you should go somewhere else.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>I heard it when I planned to start the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.scotthyoung.com\/blog\/mit-challenge\/\">MIT Challenge<\/a>. \u201cPeople don\u2019t care about learning, all they want is a degree.\u201d \u201cSounds like a lot of work.\u201d \u201cHuh?\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Of course, for each of these I also had people who thought the idea was terrific. The feedback wasn\u2019t all negative, just completely unpredictable.<\/p>\n<p>Looking back, I see that the projects that gathered the most confusion, celebration and discouragement, were by far the most profitable. Not all of them panned out\u2014but in most cases failure was cheap and forgettable. Who cares that I started out this blog, not to write, but to produce a goal-setting game? (Nobody, because <a href=\"https:\/\/www.scotthyoung.com\/blog\/Programs\/Goals_install.exe\">it was terrible<\/a>.)<\/p>\n<h2>A Flipped Intuition<\/h2>\n<p>Over time, my successes from these mixed-feedback projects flipped my intuition for undertaking projects. Now, instead of feeling good about undertaking something that had unanimous appeal and feeling worried about projects with mixed feedback, that sentiment was reversed.<\/p>\n<p>Now I\u2019m more worried about projects that are &#8220;an obvious next step for you&#8221; or &#8220;sound like a good idea&#8221;. The safe bets now feel like they carry a lot more risk, and now I think I understand why.<\/p>\n<h2>Shifting the Burden of Research<\/h2>\n<p>Whenever I undertake projects that elicit mixed reactions, I research the heck out of it. I carefully examine what I want to do, why I want to do it and try to anticipate and reduce opportunity and failure costs. The critiques charge me to patch up weaknesses in a project which may be riddled with them.<\/p>\n<p>Contrast this with &#8220;sounds good&#8221; projects. Because you get mild encouragement from everyone, you don\u2019t question the fundamental assumptions. Why are you doing it? What benefits do you expect to achieve? What basis do you have for expecting them?<\/p>\n<p>These questions go unasked because nobody pushes you to ask them. Discouragement and outright haters serve a useful purpose here. They force hard-nosed introspection you\u2019re unlikely to get from sycophantic conformists.<\/p>\n<h2>Feeling Safe Promotes Dangerous Actions<\/h2>\n<p>An interesting tidbit of psychological research is that people drive safer <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Risk_compensation\">when they aren\u2019t wearing seatbelts<\/a>. This doesn\u2019t cancel out the safety of wearing one, but it does mean that feeling safer makes you worry less about driving cautiously.<\/p>\n<p>In contrast, when you feel at risk, what do you do? You prepare like crazy. You plan for contingencies. You research possible outcomes. You brace yourself for worst cases.<\/p>\n<p>A little fear helps you focus. Too much causes you to break down. The ideal amount of danger is one that encourages preparation but doesn\u2019t discourage action.<\/p>\n<p>The problem is that &#8216;good\u2019 ideas are often not protective like a seatbelt. They may be just as risky and dangerous as a less conventional plan. But because they feel safe and normal, they promote a casualness that is often misguided.<\/p>\n<h2>Should You Go to University?<\/h2>\n<p>No question fits this pattern more than going to university. I personally think university is a great idea for many people. Even the people who can self-educate, university offers accreditation and signaling that you can\u2019t get on your own. For many people it\u2019s a great investment.<\/p>\n<p>Except when its not. Racking up six-figure debt for anything that doesn\u2019t offer excellent job prospects may be enlightening, but it\u2019s way riskier than doing a start-up, travelling the world or even skipping school entirely <a href=\"http:\/\/chrisguillebeau.com\/3x5\/the-one-year-alternative-graduate-school-program\/\">to do something daring<\/a>. Risk, in this sense doesn\u2019t make a project good or bad, it just makes it have a higher variability of outcomes.<\/p>\n<p>Yet this is also an investment that generates unanimous applause. School may be a great choice, but because it is a &#8216;good\u2019 idea, it encourages a carelessness in its research and execution that hurts many people who would otherwise benefit from it.<\/p>\n<h2>Why are You Wasting Money on Rent?<\/h2>\n<p>Home ownership is another &#8216;good\u2019 idea that will get your back patted by those around you and is rarely questioned thoroughly. To most people the alternative, renting, is an obvious waste of money.<\/p>\n<p>Owning can be great. You get control, access to property that is difficult to rent and avoid loathsome landlords. Mortgage payments are also commit yourself to investing some of your money each month in a fixed asset, which you might have otherwise spent. For some people, home ownership is a great decision.<\/p>\n<p>Except when its not. Mortgage payments can be more than 50% interest\u2014meaning even for home owners, half of the money they pay is &#8216;waste\u2019. Ownership also entails hidden costs like maintenance, insurance and property tax. Housing is also illiquid and undiversified.<\/p>\n<p>I\u2019ll probably buy a house when I\u2019m confident I\u2019ll stay put for several years or more and I want the space and freedom to customize my living arrangements. But buying just because it\u2019s a &#8216;good\u2019 idea? No thank you.<\/p>\n<h2>Be Your Own Nay-Sayer<\/h2>\n<p>My advice is simple: if everyone around you is encouraging a choice, be the person who questions it. Not because the advice is bad (many &#8216;good\u2019 ideas really are just that, good) but because risk-proofing and research shouldn\u2019t be ignored just because a choice is &#8216;safe\u2019.<\/p>\n<p>Second, if your plan is getting both hate and praise, that means it is more uncertain. But, that doesn\u2019t necessarily make it a bad idea. Many great, even safe, projects have mixed feedback because they are unusual and people don\u2019t have experience with them.<\/p>\n<p>However, if an idea gets unanimously bad feedback from people who are experienced with it\u2014take heed. The idea might still be a good one, but the research and hard-nosed introspection you need should go up a notch. And, if afterwards you\u2019re still convinced it\u2019s worth a shot, you should prepare your worst case thoroughly.<\/p>\n<p>No idea should be considered &#8216;safe\u2019 or &#8216;obvious\u2019 without due process. When that happens, you get lazy and careless. Tear apart the &#8216;good\u2019 ideas you have, in order to make them great ones.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Whenever I hear unanimous opinion a new idea or plan I have is &#8220;good&#8221;, I get suspicious. Until recently, however, I couldn\u2019t articulate the cause of that suspicion. After all, if most people think an idea is good, shouldn\u2019t that give me more confidence in it, not less? I think I\u2019ve figured out the trigger [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[12,682],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-2890","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-discipline","7":"category-nc-learning","8":"entry"},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Watch Out for &quot;Good&quot; Ideas - Scott H Young<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.scotthyoung.com\/blog\/2013\/07\/31\/watch-out-for-good-ideas\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Watch Out for &quot;Good&quot; Ideas - Scott H Young\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Whenever I hear unanimous opinion a new idea or plan I have is &#8220;good&#8221;, I get suspicious. 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