Scott H Young

Reaching some goals is simply the straightforward application of effort. If you want to get in shape, eat less and exercise more. It doesn’t require a brilliant strategy.

However, I’d say most accomplishments don’t fall into this category. I’ve set many goals that I don’t even know where to start. I recently set a new income goal for this website, to earn $3000 per month, on average. The problem is, that if I knew exactly how to earn $3000 per month, I’d already be doing it.

The problem with uncertain goals twofold. First, you need to apply effort in order to reach your goal. Even if I had all the answers for business success, I would need to work hard to grow this website. Second, you also lack knowledge. This compounds the first problem because how can you apply effort when you don’t know where to start?

Two Ways to Fail

In the past, I’ve tried two approaches to handling these uncertain goals:

The first is to try everything. A few years ago, when my goal was to build a new social circle in a new city, I took this approach. I went to bars, I joined groups, I tried many different things to meet interesting people.

The problem with this approach is that you end up flailing around. Instead of pursuing any one option well, you waste a lot of time and energy trying everything. You can burn yourself out trying to do too many things at once. Worse, with all this energy expended, it can be even more frustrating when you fail to make any progress.

The second approach is to do only one thing. I had used this strategy before with this website. I knew that many people had created a full-time income from AdSense advertisements, so my goal was to simply build enough traffic for this website to earn a full-time income.

The problem with this approach is frequently the one approach you use won’t work. I’ve never had a month where I’ve earned more than $300 with AdSense in over three years of running this blog. Many people got it to work, but if I was expecting Google to be my savior, I’d be waiting decades, perhaps forever, for it to create a sustainable business.

Doing everything is a bad strategy. So is taking one approach, to the exclusion of everything else. What’s left?

Project Experiments and Hypothesis Testing

Now, I’ve found a better strategy for handling uncertain goals. In essence it combines the best of the two strategies above. You end up pursuing multiple courses of action, so you don’t hit any dead ends. But at the same time, you remain carefully focused on each course of action so you don’t burn yourself out, flailing around wildly.

The approach is simple:

1. For any goal, devise a project you believe can move you closer to that goal.
2. The project should test one hypothesis about success towards that goal.
3. Never do more than 2-3 projects at a time.

With this approach, every project is a mini-experiment. The purpose of each project isn’t just to move you forward to your goal. It’s also to give you answers to at least one hypothesis you have about what it takes to succeed in your field. Taking this approach allows you to maintain a laser-focus while still juggling the multitude of possibilities for success.

For example, two years ago, I wanted to see what would happen if I tried to sell a product. I was testing the hypothesis that selling products would be a more effective business strategy than advertisements. I wrote How to Change a Habit, and my hypothesis was proven correct.

Later, I wanted to increase my income once more. I came up with the idea to write an expanded guide on holistic learning. For this project, I had a few hypotheses:

1. Could AdWords be used to create sales?
2. Would creating a larger guide at a higher price be more effective?
3. Was it worth developing an affiliate program?

The first hypothesis was incorrect, but the other two worked out great. With each project I was mapping out the knowledge required to reach my goal. I may not have known where to start, but each step was a calculated effort to find the answers I needed.

Many of my projects were failures. I wrote an e-book for another publishing group that flopped. I also compiled a “Best Of” book that didn’t gather much attention. But they weren’t failures for me because my purpose in starting each project was to test a hypothesis. After they were completed I had something valuable: I learned what wouldn’t work.

Only 2-3 Projects at a Time

By only testing one or two projects at a time, you can focus on doing them well. Too many projects results in the flopping around problem I mentioned previously. I’ve tried taking on many projects and the result is always that either some of them fail or all of them fail. Focus on one or two and really test those hypotheses.

Mapping Out Your Knowledge

With any complex goals, I think being able to map out your knowledge is at least as important as the application of effort. If I knew exactly how to become a six-figure blogger, I would be earning that much money already. But since I don’t, I need to map out the knowledge I have and target projects to shine a light on gaps in my understanding.

Showing up every day doesn’t mean doing the same thing every day. I don’t normally do follow-up posts, but a reader comment triggered an important point I forgot to mention. Here was the comment:

“Congrats on another good post. Now check your OWN archives. You started at between 16 and 22 posts a month for the first 2 years. The average this year has been 12. …

You ARE a smart young man and I applaud your work. I even follow [you] on a RSS feed. So expect me to call you out whenever I see anything that resembles, ‘Do as I say, not as I do.’”

Actually, my posting rate has been consistent with only one or two exceptions both this year and when I began.

Last June, I was writing four articles each week. One for Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, which would usually come online at exactly 10am. In addition, I wrote one set of Friday Links, every Friday.

After sustaining that posting rate for close to eight months, I polled readers on my posting frequency. At the time, the majority response was to post less frequently. I have longer articles, so 4x per week was too much volume for most of my readers to read.

So, for the last 11 months, I’ve been writing two articles per week. Either on Monday/Wednesday with Friday Links or Tuesday/Thursday. Once again, usually posted at exactly 10am.

Consistency and Strategy Change

I’m not writing this article simply to rebut a critique of my blog. I think the comment also reveals an important point. The importance to regularly review your strategy, and at times, to be deliberately inconsistent.

My switch to a lower posting rate was prompted by readers. But even it hadn’t been, I don’t see switching to a different posting schedule as failing to show up. Switching to a lower posting rate was a good decision on my part, because it allowed me more time to write longer e-books, products, and with an archive of over 700 posts, 80% of readers still had more articles than they would ever read.

When I started working out in the gym, I would lift weights 4-6 times per week. I did so consistently without injury or problems for over a year. Recently, I’ve switched to a slightly lower volume at roughly 3x per week, after doing more research.

You Control the Days You Show Up

More important than strict consistency, is controlling the days you show up. If you show up to the gym once per week, every week, because this is the volume of work you’ve decided is best for you, go right ahead. Same if you’ve decided to exercise for two hours, seven days per week.

I often experiment with different workout routines, blogging styles and eating habits. The difference is between people who control their routine strategically, and people who drop off or give up out of laziness.

Consistency is Good, Stagnation is Bad

If you’re doing the same thing every day, you probably aren’t improving as fast as if you experimented. Don’t get me wrong, I believe as a minimum, you should build the habit of showing up every day in some form or another. However, once you’ve built that habit, you should experiment with different strategies to find a style that best suits your goals.

Currently, I’m doing almost entirely anaerobic exercise (to go along with my weight goal). But in the past, I’ve ran everyday while lifting weights less frequently. Or I’ve played soccer or swam. I aim to show up almost every day, but what showing up means changes as I rethink my fitness routine.

I’ve just finished writing a month’s worth of posts all timestamped, to appear twice per week for the month of July during my trip. I may not be able to write for a month, but I’ve made sure my articles will still show up, 10am every Monday and Wednesday.